We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?

Cambridge statistician and beloved broadcaster David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. He will take us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience.

Along the way, he will explain why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.

Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.

Speakers:

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication in the Centre for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge. His bestselling book,The Art of Statistics, has been published in 11 languages. His current roles are as Non-Executive Director, UK Statistics Authority; Mathematical Futures expert board of the Royal Society; Member of the Statistics Expert Group for the Infected Blood Inquiry, 2019 – 2024; and Advisor; NHS Maternity and Neonatal Outcomes Group.

Robin Ince is a comedian, actor and writer. He is known for presenting the BBC radio show The Infinite Monkey Cage with physicist Brian Cox, creating Nine Lessons and Carols for Godless People, co-creating The Cosmic Shambles Network, and his stand-up comedy career.